Which Democratic candidate if being chosen as the Party Nominee can win over John McCain in the final election? This is probably the most important question that the Democratic Party, especially the Super Delegates, need to answer when they make the decision for the Party Nominee. This is more primary and important question than other questions such as how the Nominee can fulfill the plans for changing, how the Nominee can bring the country together, etc. Before the Democratic Party Nominee can do anything for the country, the Democratic Party Nominee first needs to win over John McCain in the November Election.
The following aspects need to be considered well on choosing the Democratic Party Nominee in order to win over Sen. McCain in the Election.
• Campaign Debate
There has not been a formal face to face campaign debate between the two parties for the 2008 Election. However, informal debate had been taken between Sen. McCain and Sen. Obama. When Sen. Obama said that if al Caeda is in Iraq, then we’ll send the troop to Iraq, Sen. McCain replied that as a matter of fact al Caeda is in Iraq now; Sen. Obama then replied, if there was not Bush and McCain, al Caeda would not be there in Iraq.
It looks like both were not wrong in what they were saying. But by a deeper analysis, it would find out that Sen. Obama did not win over Sen. McCain on this debate. From the point of view of the present day when the Iraq war has continued for five years, it is very clear that Iraq was not connected with al Caeda before the war was started; but back to five years ago who can be sure on this? There was a former Iraq Officer confirmed in Washington DC before the Iraq war started that al Caeda was connected to Saddam; and he also said there was some document to prove this kind connection, though the document has never been revealed afterward. Did Sen. Obama five year ago had more info resource on Iraq than President Bush and Sen. McCain to know al Caeda was not connected with Saddam? It would be hard to believe so. If it was Colin Powell who had this doubt five years ago that Iraq was not connected to al Caeda, it is more believable; but never heard that Sen. Obama said anything five years ago that al Caeda was not be there in Iraq.
Based on the info available five years ago, it was probably believed by American that al Caeda was somehow connected with Saddam. According to what Sen. Obama said “if al Qaeda is in Iraq, then we’ll send the troop to Iraq”, then Sen. Obama would also make a decision to send the troop to Iraq based the information available five years ago, unless Sen. Obama had some other info resources better that the one President Bush and Sen. McCain had.
So Sen. Obama did not win on this debate when he used the info available today to blame the decision made based on info available five years ago. According to Sen. Obama’s words in the debate, he probably would make the same decision to send the troop to Iraq if based on the info available five years ago.
• Supporting States
It is true that Sen. Obama is still in lead in term of the Supporting Sates that he won and the supporting delegates, but not many of the States that Sen. Obama won are the big and industrial States. On the other hand, Sen. Clinton has won in many big and important industrial States, such as MA, NY, NJ, FL, OH, MI, TX, CA. The question is that if Sen. Obama is the Party Nominee, can he win over Sen. McCain in those big industrial States? (Similarly, can Sen. Clinton win other States over Sen. McCain?). It will be hard for a Nominee who cannot win in the big States to win for the President Election.
• Supporting Voters
There are some polls indicating that Sen. Clinton has more white women supporting than Sen. Obama, and Sen. Obama has more black people supporting than Sen. Clinton. But in term of the campaign between the two parties, the Head-to-Head Polls from Yahoo News has the results as
Head-to-Head Polls
McCain vs.Clinton
McCain 46.3%; Clinton 45.7%
McCain vs. Obama
McCain 46.0%; Obama 44.6%
So Sen. Clinton has slightly more chance (1%) than Sen. Obama to win the election.
• Religion and Racial Factors
The speech of Sen. Obama’s Priest Rev Jeremiah Wright will more or less influence Sen. Obama’s Campaign. Even today there is news related to Sen. Obama’s Priest, “The disclosure of articles published by the Rev Jeremiah Wright’s church newsletter threatened to overshadow his speech outlining his economic plans.” With these kind matters with Sen. Obama’s campaign, it would be questionable whether Sen. Obama can win over Sen. McCain in the point of view of religion and racial aspect.
• Experience vs. Age
Experience is usually in reverse proportion to the age. Sen. McCain has a lot experience (except economic experience) but is at 70s age. Sen. Obama has no much experience but is young in 40s. Between Experience and Age, which is more important for the Voters? When President Reagan was elected as the President, he was also at about 70s age, and he won over President Carter who was the current President then. As Reagan at the age of 70s won the President Carter then, it is very possible Sen. McCain wins over Sen. Obama who does not have much experience. So age is probably less important than experience.
In summary from the above analysis, Sen. Clinton should be chosen as the Democratic Party Nominee and will have more chance than Sen. Obama to win over Sen. McCain for the 2008 election.
Posted by vinw (not verified) on March 28, 2008 - 4:28pm.
Who Can Win Over Sen. McCain in the 2008 Election
Which Democratic candidate if being chosen as the Party Nominee can win over John McCain in the final election? This is probably the most important question that the Democratic Party, especially the Super Delegates, need to answer when they make the decision for the Party Nominee. This is more primary and important question than other questions such as how the Nominee can fulfill the plans for changing, how the Nominee can bring the country together, etc. Before the Democratic Party Nominee can do anything for the country, the Democratic Party Nominee first needs to win over John McCain in the November Election.
The following aspects need to be considered well on choosing the Democratic Party Nominee in order to win over Sen. McCain in the Election.
• Campaign Debate
There has not been a formal face to face campaign debate between the two parties for the 2008 Election. However, informal debate had been taken between Sen. McCain and Sen. Obama. When Sen. Obama said that if al Caeda is in Iraq, then we’ll send the troop to Iraq, Sen. McCain replied that as a matter of fact al Caeda is in Iraq now; Sen. Obama then replied, if there was not Bush and McCain, al Caeda would not be there in Iraq.
It looks like both were not wrong in what they were saying. But by a deeper analysis, it would find out that Sen. Obama did not win over Sen. McCain on this debate. From the point of view of the present day when the Iraq war has continued for five years, it is very clear that Iraq was not connected with al Caeda before the war was started; but back to five years ago who can be sure on this? There was a former Iraq Officer confirmed in Washington DC before the Iraq war started that al Caeda was connected to Saddam; and he also said there was some document to prove this kind connection, though the document has never been revealed afterward. Did Sen. Obama five year ago had more info resource on Iraq than President Bush and Sen. McCain to know al Caeda was not connected with Saddam? It would be hard to believe so. If it was Colin Powell who had this doubt five years ago that Iraq was not connected to al Caeda, it is more believable; but never heard that Sen. Obama said anything five years ago that al Caeda was not be there in Iraq.
Based on the info available five years ago, it was probably believed by American that al Caeda was somehow connected with Saddam. According to what Sen. Obama said “if al Qaeda is in Iraq, then we’ll send the troop to Iraq”, then Sen. Obama would also make a decision to send the troop to Iraq based the information available five years ago, unless Sen. Obama had some other info resources better that the one President Bush and Sen. McCain had.
So Sen. Obama did not win on this debate when he used the info available today to blame the decision made based on info available five years ago. According to Sen. Obama’s words in the debate, he probably would make the same decision to send the troop to Iraq if based on the info available five years ago.
• Supporting States
It is true that Sen. Obama is still in lead in term of the Supporting Sates that he won and the supporting delegates, but not many of the States that Sen. Obama won are the big and industrial States. On the other hand, Sen. Clinton has won in many big and important industrial States, such as MA, NY, NJ, FL, OH, MI, TX, CA. The question is that if Sen. Obama is the Party Nominee, can he win over Sen. McCain in those big industrial States? (Similarly, can Sen. Clinton win other States over Sen. McCain?). It will be hard for a Nominee who cannot win in the big States to win for the President Election.
• Supporting Voters
There are some polls indicating that Sen. Clinton has more white women supporting than Sen. Obama, and Sen. Obama has more black people supporting than Sen. Clinton. But in term of the campaign between the two parties, the Head-to-Head Polls from Yahoo News has the results as
Head-to-Head Polls
McCain vs.Clinton
McCain 46.3%; Clinton 45.7%
McCain vs. Obama
McCain 46.0%; Obama 44.6%
So Sen. Clinton has slightly more chance (1%) than Sen. Obama to win the election.
• Religion and Racial Factors
The speech of Sen. Obama’s Priest Rev Jeremiah Wright will more or less influence Sen. Obama’s Campaign. Even today there is news related to Sen. Obama’s Priest, “The disclosure of articles published by the Rev Jeremiah Wright’s church newsletter threatened to overshadow his speech outlining his economic plans.” With these kind matters with Sen. Obama’s campaign, it would be questionable whether Sen. Obama can win over Sen. McCain in the point of view of religion and racial aspect.
• Experience vs. Age
Experience is usually in reverse proportion to the age. Sen. McCain has a lot experience (except economic experience) but is at 70s age. Sen. Obama has no much experience but is young in 40s. Between Experience and Age, which is more important for the Voters? When President Reagan was elected as the President, he was also at about 70s age, and he won over President Carter who was the current President then. As Reagan at the age of 70s won the President Carter then, it is very possible Sen. McCain wins over Sen. Obama who does not have much experience. So age is probably less important than experience.
In summary from the above analysis, Sen. Clinton should be chosen as the Democratic Party Nominee and will have more chance than Sen. Obama to win over Sen. McCain for the 2008 election.